‘When Is It Time to End a Friendship?’

In every issue of Pen, the Naoki Prize-winning author Satoshi Ogawa presents a new essay in his series ‘A Non-Conformist’s Guide to Surviving Society’. In this series, Ogawa reflects on the often eccentric strategies he devises to navigate life’s everyday challenges. Below is the thirteenth installment, ‘When Is It Time to Sever a Tie?’

Have you ever ended a friendship? I rarely do so outright. More often, I simply begin to keep my distance. I decline invitations, reduce contact, and allow the relationship to fade gradually. And yet, there was one occasion when I knew, with absolute clarity, that it was over. It happened when a friend of mine became… a prophet.

Those who have experienced a friend turning into a prophet will understand: one does not gradually become a prophet by progressing through measurable stages, as one might become a professional soccer player or a university professor. No, like the great prophets of history, it happens suddenly, one day without warning.

Let us call this friend A. We met at a music festival through a mutual acquaintance from a part-time job. Our musical tastes aligned, and he possessed a far deeper knowledge than I did, introducing me to countless artists. We lent each other albums, attended concerts together, and became the kind of friends who spend time easily. After graduation, A joined a major corporation known for its demanding work culture. We saw each other less frequently, only a few times a year, but we would still occasionally meet for drinks.

Several years into his professional life, A became a prophet. He announced it on Facebook. ‘On [a specific date], a major earthquake will strike Kyūshū,’ he wrote. ‘I received this information through a special channel, via cosmic energy. Anyone living in Kyūshū must evacuate immediately. Those who have acquaintances there should warn them.’

The comment section quickly filled with concern: ‘You should see a doctor.’ ‘I’m here if you want to talk.’ ‘Did something happen? Are you okay?’ I understood those reactions perfectly. I, too, was worried about A. Yet I could not help feeling a certain admiration. He had specified both the date and the location, declaring unequivocally that a major earthquake would occur. Most fortune-tellers prefer ambiguity: ‘There will soon be an earthquake somewhere in the south.’ ‘Soon’ and ‘somewhere in the south’ leave room for interpretation; even ‘earthquake’ remains undefined in scale. Such vagueness ensures the prophecy can never truly fail.

A, however, had removed all ambiguity. His prediction could be clearly verified. Naturally, no major earthquake would strike Kyūshū on that date. But when it failed to occur, how would he explain himself? If he were to post something like, ‘I was mistaken about the cosmic energy and the channel. I apologize to anyone I caused concern,’ I thought I might meet him again and ask how he had come to believe such things.

Instead, from that day forward, A began posting lengthy explanations about cosmic energy, about how he received revelations, about the methods by which ordinary people might connect to the channel themselves. The comments grew increasingly urgent: ‘Tell me where you live. I’m coming to see you.’ A ignored them all.

Then the prophesied day arrived. Of course, no earthquake occurred, not even a minor tremor. That much I had expected. The real question was what A would say next.

‘The cosmic energy that was meant to strike Kyūshū poured into my heart through the channel. At the very hour the earthquake was to occur, my spirit trembled greatly. Through prayer, the land of Kyūshū and my heart became one.’

After reading that post, I unfollowed him immediately.

What would you do if a friend suddenly became a prophet?

About the author

Satoshi Ogawa was born in Chiba Prefecture in 1986. He made his literary debut in 2015 with This Side of Eutronica (Yūtoronika no Kochiragawa, Hayakawa Books). In 2018, his novel Game Kingdom (Gēmu no Ōkoku, Hayakawa Books) earned both the 38th Japan SF Grand Prize and the 31st Yamamoto Shūgorō Prize. He was awarded the 168th Naoki Prize—one of Japan’s most prestigious literary awards, recognizing exceptional popular fiction— in January 2023 for The Map and The Fist (Chizu to Ken, Shūeisha). His latest work, Your Quiz (Kimi no Kuizu), was released by Asahi Shimbun Publishing in 2024.